Published Date: 21/04/2009
Category: Therapies & Markets
Research Report Decription
This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the cardiovascular sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.
Key Questions Answered:
- What patient benefits underpin the expectations for Novartis’ hepatitis C treatment Albuferon?
- What products will contribute to Pfizer’s antibiotic business growth?
- What boost has been given to the antibiotic research sector from the increasing levels of hospital-acquired infection?
- What is the 5-year growth forecast for HIV?
- Why is Schering-Plough’s hepatitis C protease inhibitor boceprevir expected to generate peak sales of US$2.5 billion?
- How might Schering-Plough’s CCR5 antagonist vicriviroc fair against Pfizer’s already launched product Selzentry?
- How might physician practise influence sales of Basilea/ Johnson?
- There are 13 agents in late- stage research for dyslipidaemia. Which are the most promising and which companies are developing them?
- What clinical trial results may affect the regulatory approval of sanofi-aventis’ oral class III anti-arrhythmic agent, Multaq?
- The ultimate worldwide sales for Bayer/Johnson & Johnson’s Factor Xa inhibitor thrombosis treatment, Xarelto, could peak at US$10 billion – what competitive hurdles must it overcome to realise such blockbuster revenues?
- 14 of the 18 products reviewed in the report are forecast for peak sales of >US$1 billion. Why are expectations so high?
- What are the risks and rewards for Wyeth/Elan’s novel Alzheimer’s treatment bapineuzumab?
- What trends are driving growth in the patient populations for acid-related disorders, IBD, IBS and GORD?
- What approaches are being taken in the acid-related disorders market and will they offer any real benefits over current generically-available PPI treatments?
- There are 19 agents in late-stage research for IBS – what therapeutic approaches are being pursued and by which companies?
- What competitive market environment will Takeda’s controlled-release GORD treatment Kapidex face when it is launched, and how might that affect sales growth?
- What clinical benefits does Forest Lab’ IBS-C treatment linaclotide have, and will they be sufficient to achieve the estimated global sales of US$470 million by 2013?
- When is AGI Therapeutics’ novel first-in-class IBS-D treatment Rezular expected to launch, and how might competing product Lotronex’s prescribing restrictions help sales growth?
- Following the termination of Pfizer’s Exubera and the suspension of similar products, what is the future for non-injectible insulin?
- Although still in Phase II, hopes are high for Johnson & Johnson/Metabolix’s novel Type II diabetes treatment metaglidasen, but issues remain. What are they and what is the potential upside?
- With a superior efficacy and side effect profile to competing Byetta, Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 analogue Type II diabetes treatment Victoza is tipped for success – but what is hindering its commercial development?
- What regulatory and patent obstacles must Arena Pharmaceuticals’ 5-HT2c agonist lorcaserin overcome in the troubled obesity market?
- What impact will generic competition have on the osteoporosis and osteoarthritis markets and which companies will be affected?
- What trends have affected the uptake of TNF blockers and what opportunity does this present for products in the pipeline?
- Why is Roche well placed to achieve commercial success in this sector?
- What advantages does Amgen’s first-in-class RANK-L Mab bring to the treatment of osteoporosis and what obstacles will it have to overcome to achieve sales of US$1.45 billion by 2013?
- Will Roche/Chugai’s Actemra, be able to challenge TNF blockers and become a first-line treatment for the rheumatoid arthritis market and what could be the commercial rewards?
- Is Wyeth wise to target Novartis’ entrenched CML treatment Gleevec (imatinib) with its SRC/ABL kinase inhibitor Bosutinib and what must it do to promote its adoption as a first- line therapy?
- Positive clinical trial results for Roche’s HER2/neu dimerisation inhibitor pertuzumab could see it become the standard of care for HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer. But in what other indications might it be clinically valuable?
- What is the value of the global respiratory market?
- There are 300 million asthma and 210 million COPD sufferers worldwide, but COPD only accounts for 20% of the market – why?
- What steps are being taken to improve patient compliance, which is notoriously poor in the respiratory area?
- Why will generic competition have a particularly significant effect on the asthma market?
- Why, despite the need for an effective oral treatment for COPD, might Nycomed’s PDE IV inhibitor Daxas fail to achieve its real sales potential?
- Could Novartis’ once-daily long-acting muscarinic antagonist, glycopyrronium bromide, unseat Boehringer Ingelheim’s Spiriva as the leading COPD product and, if so, what would the commercial benefit be to the company?
- Will Novartis’ indacaterol and glycopyrronium bromide be enough to challenge GlaxoSmithKline’s domination of the respiratory market?
Companies Mentioned:
Abbott, Abgenix, Active Biologics, Adolor, Altana, Amgen,
Amylin, Arena Pharma, Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Astellas, Astra Zeneca, Atherogenics, Axoynx,
Bayer , Boerhinger Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Cell Genesys, Chugia, CV Therapeutics, Dendreon , Dianippon, Eli Lilly, Encysive
Pharmaceuticals, , GlaxoSmithKline, GTx, Johnson & Johnson, Keyrx, Lundbeck,
Mediimmunex, Merck & Co., Merck
KGaA, Myriad Genetics, Neurochem, Neurosearch,
Novartis, Novo Nordisk, NPS Pharmaceuticals, Onyx, Pfizer, Roche, Sankyo, sanofi
Aventis, Schering Plough, SCP, Sepracor, Serono,
Servier, Shire, Solvay, Spectrum Pharmaceutical , Takeda, Telik, UCB, Vertex, Wyeth
Paper Highlights:
Are there too many prophets of doom ready to write-off the
research-based pharma industry in the future? There is plenty on which to base
such anxiety. The research-based industry must achieve a fair price in the face
of greater cost control, while the burden of regulation is setting the bar high
for successful product introduction. Meanwhile, the generics sector is eating
away at ageing and established portfolios. It is a fair assessment to say that
the industry has rested too much on its laurels and successful product
portfolios. For too many years, too few novel medicines have been brought to
market, laying the foundations for the industry’s current ills. Can it be different? The
increasing number of biologicals that are coming to market have real potential
for clinical and commercial progress, and while there is an innovation gap
until new biological products make their market presence felt, there are
considerable reasons to view the future more positively. A considered
evaluation of the research pipeline shows that the future can be brighter than
many pundits predict.Over 70 winning drugs have been identified that could be
launched by 2013. Products come from over 35 companies, ranging from
multinationals and specialty pharma, to biopharmaceuticals and biotechnology
companies. Will they make it? Our estimates assume products will gain approval
for the indications we have forecast in the timeframe analysed. However,
regulatory demands and pressures on cost and development budgets increasingly
mean safe and effective medicines are not brought to market. That is why we
provide a unique analysis of each product, examining its novelty of mechanism,
clinical data, competitive environment, the experience of the developer and
risks associated with development within that therapeutic class. This report is
essential reading for industry planners and investorsAnyone wanting an
insightful analysis of the products and companies that will shape the global
pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years need look no further than this
report.
