New Drug Futures (Alimentary/Metabolic)
Products that could change the Pharma market to 2010 and beyond
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| Overview: | |
| This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the alimentary/metabolic sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product. |
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By Dr CL Barton / Publication Date: 19th May 2006
Contents:
©Espicom Business Intelligence iii May 2006
NEW DRUG FUTURES
CURRENT MARKET SIZE .......................................................................................................................................................... 1
ANTI-ULCERANT MARKET ....................................................................................................................................................1
DIABETES MARKET ...............................................................................................................................................................1
OBESITY MARKET..................................................................................................................................................................2
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION ................................................................................................................................ 3
GASTRO-OESOPHAGEAL REFLUX DISEASE (GORD) ............................................................................................................3
DIABETES ...............................................................................................................................................................................3
OBESITY .................................................................................................................................................................................4
CURRENT TREATMENTS .......................................................................................................................................................... 5
TREATMENT OF GORD ..........................................................................................................................................................5
TREATMENT OF DIABETES ....................................................................................................................................................5
TREATMENT OF DIABETIC NEUROPATHIES ..........................................................................................................................6
TREATMENT OF OBESITY ......................................................................................................................................................7
SALES DRIVERS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 8
ANTI-ULCERANT SALES DRIVERS ........................................................................................................................................8
ANTI-DIABETIC SALES DRIVERS ...........................................................................................................................................8
ANTI-OBESITY SALES DRIVERS ............................................................................................................................................9
SALES BREAKERS .................................................................................................................................................................... 10
ANTI-ULCERANT SALES BREAKERS ...................................................................................................................................10
ANTI-DIABETIC SALES BREAKERS ......................................................................................................................................10
ANTI-OBESITY SALES BREAKERS .......................................................................................................................................11
FUTURE TREATMENTS ........................................................................................................................................................11
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS ......................................................................................................................... 17
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 .......................................................................................................................................... 18
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA ...............................................................................................................................19
KEY ALIMENTARY / METABOLIC DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 ............................................................................................20
Acomplia (sanofi-aventis) ................................................................................................................................................ 20
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................20
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................20
STRATUS – Smoking cessation......................................................................................................................................................22
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................23
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................23
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................24
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................24
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................24
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................25
AERx iDMS (NovoNordisk/Paradigm) ............................................................................................................................... 25
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................25
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................25
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................26
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................26
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................26
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................27
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................27
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................27
Arxxant (Eli Lilly) ................................................................................................................................................................ 28
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................28
Proof of concept/clinical data ......................................................................................................................................................28
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................28
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................29
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................29
©Espicom Business Intelligence May 2006 iv
NEW DRUG FUTURES
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................29
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................29
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................30
APD356 (Arena Pharmaceuticals) .................................................................................................................................... 30
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................30
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................30
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................31
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................31
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................31
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................31
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................31
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................32
AVE-0010 (sanofi-aventis) ..................................................................................................................................................32
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................32
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................32
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................33
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................33
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................33
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................33
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................33
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................34
Byetta (Eli Lilly/Amylin) ..................................................................................................................................................... 34
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................34
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................35
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................35
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................35
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................36
Filings and approval .......................................................................................................................................................................36
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................36
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................37
Exubera (Pfizer) ..................................................................................................................................................................37
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................37
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................37
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................38
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................38
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................38
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................39
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................39
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................40
Galida (AstraZeneca) ......................................................................................................................................................... 40
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................40
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................40
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................40
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................41
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................41
Filings and approval .......................................................................................................................................................................41
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................41
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................42
Galvus (Novartis) ............................................................................................................................................................... 42
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................42
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................42
©Espicom Business Intelligence v May 2006
NEW DRUG FUTURES
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................43
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................43
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................44
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................44
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................44
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................45
Januvia (Merck & Co.) ........................................................................................................................................................ 45
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................45
Proof of concept/clinical data ......................................................................................................................................................45
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................46
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................46
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................46
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................46
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................47
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................47
Liraglutide (Novo Nordisk) ................................................................................................................................................47
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................47
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................48
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................49
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................49
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................49
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................49
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................50
Naveglitazar (Eli Lilly) ........................................................................................................................................................ 50
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................50
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................50
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................50
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................51
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................51
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................51
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................51
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................52
Pargluva (BMS) ...................................................................................................................................................................52
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................52
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................52
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................53
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................53
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................53
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................53
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................54
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................54
Saxagliptin- Metabolism (Bristol-Myers Squibb) .............................................................................................................55
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................55
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................55
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................55
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................55
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................55
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................56
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................56
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................56
Soraprazan (Altana) .......................................................................................................................................................... 56
©Espicom Business Intelligence May 2006 vi
NEW DRUG FUTURES
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................56
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................57
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................57
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................57
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................57
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................57
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................57
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................58
Suloxdexide (Keryx) .......................................................................................................................................................... 58
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................58
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................58
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................59
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................60
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................60
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................60
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................60
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................61
TAK-390MR (Takeda) ..........................................................................................................................................................61
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action ...............................................................................................................................61
Proof of concept/clinical data .......................................................................................................................................................61
Management/clinical expertise ...................................................................................................................................................61
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice ..................................................................................................62
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .....................................................................................62
Filings and approval ......................................................................................................................................................................62
Sales forecasts and assumptions .................................................................................................................................................62
Competitor Ratio Analysis .............................................................................................................................................................63
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................64
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS ............................................................................................................................65
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES ....................................................................................................................67