New Drug Futures
Products that could change the pharma market to 2010 and beyond
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| This 400-page report evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. | |
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By Dr CL Barton / Publication Date: 19th May 2006
Contents:
New Drug Futures: i
ProDucts that coulD chaNge the Pharma market to 2010 aND beyoND i
INTRODUCTION 1
alimeNtary/metabolic market 3
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 3
aNti-ulceraNt market 3
Diabetes market 3
obesity market.4
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION .5
gastro-oesoPhageal reFluX Disease (gorD) ..5
Diabetes 5
obesity 6
CURRENT TREATMENTS 7
treatmeNt oF gorD 7
treatmeNt oF Diabetes 7
treatmeNt oF Diabetic NeuroPathies .8
treatmeNt oF obesity .9
SALES DRIVERS .10
aNti-ulceraNt sales DriVers 10
aNti-Diabetic sales DriVers 10
aNti-obesity sales DriVers 11
SALES BREAKERS 12
aNti-ulceraNt sales breakers .12
aNti-Diabetic sales breakers .12
aNti-obesity sales breakers 13
Future treatmeNts 13
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 19
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 20
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA .21
KEY ALIMENTARY / METABOLIC DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 ..22
acomplia (sanofi-aventis) . 22
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 22
Proof of concept/clinical data .22
STRATUS – Smoking cessation.24
Management/clinical expertise 25
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice .25
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class .26
Filings and approval 26
Sales forecasts and assumptions .26
Competitor Ratio Analysis .27
aerx iDms (NovoNordisk/Paradigm) 27
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 27
Proof of concept/clinical data 27
Management/clinical expertise .28
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 28
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 28
Filings and approval .29
Sales forecasts and assumptions .29
Competitor Ratio Analysis 29
arxxant (eli lilly) 30
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action .30
Proof of concept/clinical data 30
Management/clinical expertise 30
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 31
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 31
Filings and approval .31
Sales forecasts and assumptions .31
Competitor Ratio Analysis .32
aPD356 (arena Pharmaceuticals) .32
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action .32
Proof of concept/clinical data 32
Management/clinical expertise 33
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 33
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 33
Filings and approval .33
Sales forecasts and assumptions .33
Competitor Ratio Analysis .34
aVe-0010 (sanofi-aventis) 34
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action .34
Proof of concept/clinical data 34
Management/clinical expertise .35
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice .35
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 35
Filings and approval 35
Sales forecasts and assumptions 35
Competitor Ratio Analysis 36
byetta (eli lilly/amylin) 36
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 36
Proof of concept/clinical data 37
Management/clinical expertise 37
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 37
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 38
Filings and approval 38
Sales forecasts and assumptions 38
Competitor Ratio Analysis 39
exubera (Pfizer) 39
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 39
Proof of concept/clinical data 39
Management/clinical expertise 40
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 40
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 40
Filings and approval 41
Sales forecasts and assumptions 41
Competitor Ratio Analysis 42
galida (astraZeneca) 42
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 42
Proof of concept/clinical data 42
Management/clinical expertise 42
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 43
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 43
Filings and approval 43
Sales forecasts and assumptions 43
Competitor Ratio Analysis 44
galvus (Novartis) 44
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 44
Proof of concept/clinical data 44
Management/clinical expertise 45
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 45
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 46
Filings and approval 46
Sales forecasts and assumptions 46
Competitor Ratio Analysis 47
Januvia (merck & co.) 47
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 47
Proof of concept/clinical data 47
Management/clinical expertise 48
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 48
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 48
Filings and approval 48
Sales forecasts and assumptions 49
Competitor Ratio Analysis 49
liraglutide (Novo Nordisk) 49
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 49
Proof of concept/clinical data 50
Management/clinical expertise 51
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 51
Filings and approval 51
Competitor Ratio Analysis 52
Naveglitazar (eli lilly) 52
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 52
Proof of concept/clinical data 52
Management/clinical expertise 52
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 53
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 53
Filings and approval 53
Sales forecasts and assumptions 53
Competitor Ratio Analysis 54
Pargluva (bms) 54
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 54
Proof of concept/clinical data 54
Management/clinical expertise 55
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 55
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 55
Filings and approval 55
Sales forecasts and assumptions 56
Competitor Ratio Analysis 56
saxagliptin- metabolism (bristol-myers squibb) 57
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 57
Proof of concept/clinical data 57
Management/clinical expertise 57
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 57
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 57
Filings and approval 58
Sales forecasts and assumptions 58
Competitor Ratio Analysis 58
soraprazan (altana) 58
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 58
Proof of concept/clinical data 59
Management/clinical expertise 59
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 59
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 59
Filings and approval 59
Sales forecasts and assumptions 59
Competitor Ratio Analysis 60
suloxdexide (keryx) 60
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 60
Proof of concept/clinical data 60
Management/clinical expertise 61
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 62
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 62
Filings and approval 62
Sales forecasts and assumptions 62
Competitor Ratio Analysis 63
tak-390mr (takeda) 63
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 63
Proof of concept/clinical data 63
Management/clinical expertise 63
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 64
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 64
Filings and approval 64
Sales forecasts and assumptions 64
Competitor Ratio Analysis 65
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 66
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS 67
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 69
aNti-iNFectiVes 71
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 71
antibiotic sales 72
antiviral sales 72
antifungal sales 72
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 73
bacterial infections 73
Viral infections 73
Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) 73
Hepatitis B (HBV) 74
Hepatitis C (HCV) 74
CURRENT TREATMENTS 75
antibacterial agents 76
antiviral agents- hiV 76
antiviral agents- hcV/hbV 77
ANTI-INFECTIVES SALES DRIVERS 78
ANTI-INFECTIVE SALES BREAKERS 80
FUTURE TREATMENTS 81
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 85
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 86
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 87
KEY ANTI-INFECTIVES DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 88
anidulafungin (Pfizer) 88
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 88
Proof of concept/clinical data 88
Management/clinical expertise 88
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 88
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 89
Filings and approval 89
Sales forecasts and assumptions 89
Competitor Ratio Analysis 89
aptivus (boehringer ingelheim) 90
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 90
Proof of concept/clinical data 90
Management/clinical expertise 90
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 90
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 91
Filings and approval 91
Sales forecasts and assumptions 91
Competitor Ratio Analysis 91
aplaviroc (glaxosmithkline) 92
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 92
Proof of concept/clinical data 92
Management/clinical expertise 92
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 92
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 93
Filings and approval 93
Sales forecasts and assumptions 93
Competitor Ratio Analysis 94
ceftobiprole (Johnson & Johnson94
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 94
Proof of concept/clinical data 94
Management/clinical expertise 95
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 95
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 95
Filings and approval 95
Sales forecasts and assumptions 96
Competitor Ratio Analysis 96
garenoxicin (schering-Plough) 96
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 96
Proof of concept/clinical data 96
Management/clinical expertise 97
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 97
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 97
Filings and approval 97
Sales forecasts and assumptions 97
Competitor Ratio Analysis 98
gw695634 (glaxosmithkline) 98
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 98
Proof of concept/clinical data 98
Management/clinical expertise 98
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 99
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 99
Filings and approval 99
Sales forecasts and assumptions 99
Competitor Ratio Analysis 100
maraviroc (Pfizer) 100
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 100
Proof of concept/clinical data 100
Management/clinical expertise 100
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 100
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 101
Filings and approval 101
Sales forecasts and assumptions 101
Competitor Ratio Analysis 102
mk-0518 (merck & co) 102
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 102
Proof of concept/clinical data 102
Management/clinical expertise 103
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 103
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 103
Filings and approval 103
Sales forecasts and assumptions 104
Competitor Ratio Analysis 104
retapamulin (glaxosmithkline) 104
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 104
Proof of concept/clinical data 104
Management/clinical expertise 105
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 105
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 105
Filings and approval 105
Sales forecasts and assumptions 105
Competitor Ratio Analysis 106
telbivudine (Novartis) 106
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 106
Proof of concept/clinical data 106
Management and clinical expertise 106
Competition within the marketplace/ gaining share of voice 107
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 107
Filings & Approvals 107
Sales forecasts and assumptions 107
Competitor Ratio Analysis 108
tmc-114 (Johnson & Johnson/tibotec Pharma) 108
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 108
Proof of concept/clinical data 108
Management/clinical expertise 108
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 108
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 109
Filings and approval 109
Sales forecasts and assumptions
109
Competitor Ratio Analysis 110
tygacil (wyeth) 110
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 110
Proof of concept/clinical data 110
Management/clinical expertise 110
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 110
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 111
Filings and approval 111
Sales forecasts and assumptions 111
Competitor Ratio Analysis 111
Vicriviroc (schering-Plough) 112
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 112
Proof of concept/clinical data 112
Management/clinical expertise 113
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 113
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 114
Filings and approval 114
Sales forecasts and assumptions 114
Competitor Ratio Analysis 115
VX-950 (Vertex Pharmaceuticals) 115
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 115
Proof of concept/clinical data 115
Management/clinical expertise 115
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 116
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 116
Filings and approval 116
Sales forecasts and assumption 117
Competitor Ratio Analysis 117
Zeven (Pfizer) 117
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 117
Proof of concept/clinical data 118
Management/clinical expertise 118
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 118
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 118
Filings and approval 119
Sales forecasts and assumptions 119
Competitor Ratio Analysis 119
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 120
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 122
caNcer 123
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 123
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 125
CURRENT TREATMENTS 127
surgery127
raDiatioN 127
chemotheraPy 127
NoVel theraPies/moNocloNal aNtiboDies 128
hormoNal theraPies 128
CANCER SALES DRIVERS 129
CANCER SALES BREAKERS 130
FUTURE TREATMENTS 131
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 141
KEY DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 142
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 143
KEY CANCER DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 144
acapodene (gtx) 144
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 144
Proof of concept/clinical data 144
Management/clinical expertise 144
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 145
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 145
Filings and approval 145
Sales forecasts and assumptions 145
Competitor Ratio Analysis 146
aP23573 (ariaD Pharmaceuticals) 146
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 146
Proof of concept/clinical data 146
Management/clinical expertise 147
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 147
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 147
Filings and approval 147
Sales forecasts and assumptions 147
Competitor Ratio Analysis 148
Dasatinib (bristol-myers squibb) 148
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 148
Proof of concept/clinical data 148
Management/clinical expertise 149
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 149
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 149
Filings and approval 149
Sales forecasts and assumptions 149
Competitor Ratio Analysis 150
ixabepilone (bristol-myers squibb) 150
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 150
Proof of concept/clinical data 150
Management/clinical expertise 151
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 151
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 151
Filings and approval 151
Sales forecasts and assumptions 151
Competitor Ratio Analysis 152
lapatinib (glaxosmithkline) 152
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 152
Proof of concept/clinical data 152
Management/clinical expertise 152
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 153
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 153
Filings and approval 153
Sales forecasts and assumptions 153
Competitor Ratio Analysis 154
Nexavar (onyx Pharmaceuticals/bayer) 154
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 154
Proof of concept/clinical data 154
Management/clinical expertise 155
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 155
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 155
Filings and approval 155
Sales forecasts and assumptions 156
Competitor Ratio Analysis 156
Panitumumab(amgen/abgenix) 156
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 156
Proof of concept/clinical data 157
Management/clinical expertise 157
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 157
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 157
Filings and approval 158
Sales forecasts and assumptions 158
Competitor Ratio Analysis 158
revlimid (celgene) 159
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 159
Proof of concept/clinical data 159
Management/clinical expertise 159
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 160
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 160
Filings and approval 160
Sales forecasts and assumptions 160
Competitor Ratio Analysis 161
satraplatin(gPc biotech/spectrum Pharmaceutical) 161
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 161
Proof of concept/clinical data 161
Management/clinical expertise 163
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 163
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 163
Filings and approval 163
Sales forecasts and assumptions 163
Competitor Ratio Analysis 164
sutent (Pfizer) 164
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 164
Proof of concept/clinical data 164
Management/clinical expertise 164
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 165
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 165
Filings and approval 165
Sales forecasts and assumptions 165
Competitor Ratio Analysis 166
telcyta (telik) 166
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 166
Proof of concept/clinical data 166
Mangement/clinical expertise 167
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 167
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 167
Filings and approval 167
Sales forecasts and assumptions 167
Competitor Ratio Analysis 168
ticilimumab (Pfizer/amgen) 168
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 168
Proof of concept/clinical data 168
Management/clinical expertise 168
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 169
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 169
Filings and approval 169
Sales forecasts and assumptions 169
Competitor Ratio Analysis 170
Vatalanib (Novartis/schering) 170
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 170
Proof of concept/clinical data 170
Management/clinical expertise 171
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 171
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 172
Filings and approval 172
Sales forecasts and assumptions 172
Competitor Ratio Analysis 172
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 173
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 176
carDioVascular 177
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 177
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 180
CURRENT TREATMENTS 181
CARDIOVASCULAR SALES DRIVERS 182
CARDIOVASCULAR SALES BREAKERS 183
FUTURE TREATMENTS 184
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 192
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 193
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 194
KEY CARDIOVASCULAR DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 195
agi 1067 (atherogenics/astraZeneca) 195
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 195
Proof of concept/clinical data 195
Management/clinical expertise 196
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 196
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 196
Filings and approval 196
Sales forecasts and assumptions 197
Competitor Ratio Analysis 197
aZD7009 (iV) (astraZeneca197
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 197
Proof of concept/clinical data 197
Management/clinical expertise 198
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 198
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 198
Filings and approval 198
Sales forecasts and assumptions 198
Competitor Ratio Analysis 199
bay 59-7939 (bayer/Johnson & Johnson) 199
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 199
Proof of concept/clinical data 199
Management/clinical expertise 200
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 200
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 200
Filings and approval 201
Sales forecasts and assumption 201
Competitor Ratio Analysis 201
cera (roche/chugai) 202
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 202
Proof of concept/clinical data 202
Management/clinical expertise 202
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 203
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 203
Filings and approval 203
Sales forecasts and assumptions 203
Competitor Ratio Analysis (astraZeneca) 204
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 204
Proof of concept/clinical data 204
Management/clinical expertise 205
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 205
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 205
Filings and approval 206
Competitor Ratio Analysis 206
Dronedarone (sanofi-aventis) 207
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 207
Proof of concept/clinical data 207
Management/clinical expertise 207
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 207
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 207
Filings and approval 208
Sales forecasts and assumptions 208
Competitor Ratio Analysis 208
exjade (Novartis) 209
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 209
Proof of concept/clinical data 209
Management/clinical expertise 209
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 209
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 209
Filings and approval 210
Sales forecasts and assumptions 210
Competitor Ratio Analysis 211
Procoralan (servier) 211
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 211
Proof of concept/clinical data 211
Management/clinical expertise 212
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 212
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 212
Filings and approval 212
Sales forecasts and assumptions 212
Competitor Ratio Analysis 213
Prasugrel (eli lilly/sankyo) 213
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 213
Proof of concept/clinical data 213
Management/clinical expertise 214
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 214
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 214
Filings and approval 214
Sales forecasts and assumptions 214
Competitor Ratio Analysis 215
ranexa (cV therapeutics) 215
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 215
Proof of concept/clinical data 215
Management/clinical expertise 216
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 216
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 216
Filings and approval 216
Sales forecasts and assumptions 217
Competitor Ratio Analysis 217
regadenoson (astella/cV therapeutics) 217
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 217
Proof of concept/clinical data 217
Management/clinical expertise 218
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 218
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 218
Filings and approval 218
Sales forecasts and assumptions 218
Competitor Ratio Analysis 219
rasilez (Novartis) 219
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 219
Proof of concept/clinical data 219
Management/clinical expertise 220
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 220
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 220
Filings and approval 220
Sales forecasts and assumptions 220
Competitor Ratio Analysis 221
revatio (Pfizer) 221
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 221
Proof of concept/clinical data 221
Management/clinical expertise 221
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 222
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 222
Filings and approval 222
Sales forecasts and assumptions 222
Competitor Ratio Analysis 223
thelin (encysive Pharmaceuticals) 223
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 223
Proof of concept/clinical data 223
Management/clinical expertise 224
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 224
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 224
Filings and approval 224
Sales forecasts and assumptions 224
Competitor Ratio Analysis 225
torcetrapib/lipitor (Pfizer) 225
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 225
Proof of concept/clinical data 226
Management/clinical expertise 226
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 227
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 227
Filings and approval 228
Sales forecasts and assumptions 228
Competitor Ratio Analysis 229
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 230
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS 231
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 233
ceNtral NerVous system 235
CURRENT MARKET
SIZE 235
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 237
CURRENT TREATMENTS 238
CNS SALES DRIVERS 239
CNS SALES BREAKERS 240
FUTURE TREATMENTS 241
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 251
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 252
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 253
KEY CNS DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 254
alzhemed (Neurochem) 254
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 254
Proof of concept/clinical data 254
Management/clinical expertise 255
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 255
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 255
Filings and approval 255
Sales forecasts and assumptions 255
Competitor Ratio Analysis 256
asenapine (Pfizer/organon) 256
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 256
Proof of concept/clinical data 256
Management/clinical expertise 256
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 257
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 257
Filings and approval 257
Sales forecasts and assumptions 257
Competitor Ratio Analysis 258
bifeprunox (wyeth/solvay/lundbeck) 258
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 258
Proof of concept/clinical data 258
Proof of concept/clinical data 223
Management/clinical expertise 224
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 224
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 224
Filings and approval 224
Sales forecasts and assumptions 224
Competitor Ratio Analysis 225
torcetrapib/lipitor (Pfizer) 225
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 225
Proof of concept/clinical data 226
Management/clinical expertise 226
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 227
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 227
Filings and approval 228
Sales forecasts and assumptions 228
Competitor Ratio Analysis 229
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 230
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS 231
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 233
ceNtral NerVous system 235
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 235
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 237
CURRENT TREATMENTS 238
CNS SALES DRIVERS 239
CNS SALES BREAKERS 240
FUTURE TREATMENTS 241
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 251
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 252
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 253
KEY CNS DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 254
alzhemed (Neurochem) 254
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 254
Proof of concept/clinical data 254
Management/clinical expertise 255
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 255
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 255
Filings and approval 255
Sales forecasts and assumptions 255
Competitor Ratio Analysis 256
asenapine (Pfizer/organon) 256
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 256
Proof of concept/clinical data 256
Management/clinical expertise 256
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 257
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 257
Filings and approval 257
Sales forecasts and assumptions 257
Competitor Ratio Analysis 258
bifeprunox (wyeth/solvay/lundbeck) 258
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 58
Proof of concept/clinical data 258
Management/clinical expertise 259
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 259
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 259
Filings and approval 259
Sales forecasts and assumptions 259
Competitor Ratio Analysis 260
champix (Pfizer) 260
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 60
Proof of concept/clinical data 260
Management/clinical expertise 260
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 261
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 261
Filings and approval 261
Sales forecasts and assumptions 261
Competitor Ratio Analysis 261
Daytrana (shire) 262
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 262
Proof of concept/clinical data 262
Management/clinical expertise 262
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 262
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 262
Filings and approval 263
Sales forecasts and assumptions 263
Competitor Ratio Analysis 263
DVs 233 ( wyeth) 264
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 264
Proof of concept/clinical data 264
Management/clinical expertise 264
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 264
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 265
Filings and approval 265
Sales forecasts and assumptions 265
Competitor Ratio Analysis 265
Flurizan (myriad genetics) 266
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 266
Proof of concept/clinical data 266
Management/clinical expertise 266
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 267
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 267
Filings and approval 267
Sales forecasts and assumptions 267
Competitor Ratio Analysis 268
gaboxodol (lundbeck/merck) 268
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 268
Proof of concept/clinical data 268
Management/clinical expertise 268
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 269
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 269
Filings and approval 269
Sales forecasts and assumptions 269
Competitor Ratio Analysis 270
indiplon (Pfizer /Neurocrine) 270
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 270
Proof of concept/clinical data 270
Management/clinical expertise 270
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 271
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 271
Filings and approval 271
Sales forecasts and assumptions 271
Competitor Ratio Analysis 272
laquinimod (teva/active biotech) 272
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 272
Proof of concept/clinical data 272
Management/clinical expertise 273
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 273
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 273
Filings and approval 274
Sales forecasts and assumptions 274
Competitor Ratio Analysis 274
lunesta/estorra (sepracor) 275
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 275
Proof of concept/clinical data 275
Management/clinical expertise 275
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 275
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 276
Filings and approval 276
Sales forecasts and assumptions 276
Competitor Ratio Analysis 276
lurasidone (Dainippon sumitomo Pharma/merck & co.) 277
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 277
Proof of concept/clinical data 277
Management/clinical expertise 277
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 277
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 277
Filings and approval 278
Sales forecasts and assumptions 278
Competitor Ratio Analysis 278
lyrica (Pfizer) 278
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 278
Proof of concept/clinical data 279
Management/clinical expertise 279
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 280
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 280
Filings and approval 280
Sales forecasts and assumptions 281
Competitor Ratio Analysis 281
mylinax (serono/ivax) 282
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 282
Proof of concept/clinical data 282
Management/clinical expertise 282
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 282
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 283
Filings and approval 283
Sales forecasts and assumptions 283
Competitor Ratio Analysis 284
Ns2359 (glaxosmithkline/Neurosearch) 284
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 284
Proof of concept/clinical data 284
Management/clinical expertise 285
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 285
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 286
Filings and approval 286
Sales forecasts and assumptions 286
Competitor Ratio Analysis 287
Paliperidone (Johnson & Johnson) 287
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 287
Proof of concept/clinical data 287
Management/clinical expertise 287
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 288
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 288
Filings and approval 288
Sales forecasts and assumptions 288
Competitor Ratio Analysis 289
Phenserine (axonyx) 289
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 289
Proof of concept/clinical data 289
Management/clinical expertise 290
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice W290
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 290
Filings and approval 290
Sales forecasts and assumptions 290
Competitor Ratio Analysis 291
rozerem (takeda) 291
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 291
Proof of concept/clinical data 291
Management/clinical expertise 292
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 292
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 292
Filings and approval 292
Sales forecasts and assumptions 292
Competitor Ratio Analysis 293
saredutant (sanofi-aventis) 293
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 293
Proof of concept/clinical data 293
Management/clinical expertise 294
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 294
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 294
Filings and approval 294
Sales forecasts and assumptions 294
Competitor Ratio Analysis 295
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 296
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS 298
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 300
musculoskeletal market 301
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 301
ANTI-RHEUMATIC DRUG SALES 303
ANTI-OSTEOPOROSIS DRUG SALES 305
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 306
rheumatoiD arthritis 306
osteoPorosis 306
CURRENT TREATMENTS 307
rheumatoiD arthritis treatmeNts 307
osteoPorosis treatmeNts 308
rheumatoiD arthritis sales DriVers 309
osteoPorosis sales DriVers 309
rheumatoiD arthritis sales breakers 309
osteoPorosis sales breakers 310
FUTURE TREATMENTS 311
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 316
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 317
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 318
KEY MUSCULOSKELETALDRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 319
actemra (roche/chugai) 319
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 319
Proof of concept/clinical data 319
Management/clinical expertise 320
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 320
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 320
Filings and approval 321
Sales forecasts and assumptions 321
Competitor Ratio Analysis 321
bazedoxifene (wyeth) 321
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 321
Proof of concept/clinical data 322
Management/clinical expertise 322
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 322
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 323
Filings and approval 323
Sales forecasts and assumptions 323
Competitor Ratio Analysis 323
cimzia (ucb/celltech) 324
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 324
Proof of concept/clinical data 324
Management/clinical expertise 325
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 325
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 325
Filings and approval 326
Sales forecasts and assumptions 326
Competitor Ratio Analysis 326
cNto 148 (Johnson & Johnson/schering-Plough) 327
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 327
Proof of concept/clinical data 327
Management/clinical expertise 327
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 328
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 328
Filings and approval 328
Sales forecasts and assumptions 328
Competitor Ratio Analysis 329
Denosumab (amgen) 329
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 329
Proof of concept/clinical data 329
Management/clinical expertise 330
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 330
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 330
Filings and approval 330
Sales forecasts and assumptions 331
Competitor Ratio Analysis 331
entereg (glaxosmithkline/adolor) 331
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 331
Proof of concept/clinical data 331
Management/clinical expertise 332
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 332
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 332
Filings and approval 333
Sales forecasts and assumptions 333
Competitor Ratio Analysis 333
Febuxostat (taP Pharmaceutical Products) 334
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 334
Proof of concept/clinical data 334
Management/clinical expertise 334
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 334
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 334
Filings and approval 334
Sales forecasts and assumptions 335
Competitor Ratio Analysis 335
orencia (bristol-myers squibb) 335
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 335
Proof of concept/clinical data 335
Management/clinical expertise 336
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 336
Sales forecasts and assumptions 337
Competitor Ratio Analysis 338
Preos (NPs Pharmaceuticals) 338
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 338
Proof of concept/clinical data 338
POWER Study 339
PaTH Study 339
Management/clinical expertise 339
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 339
Filings and approval 340
Sales forecasts and assumptions 340
Competitor Ratio Analysis 340
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 341
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 344
resPiratory market 345
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 345
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 347
CURRENT TREATMENTS 348
Third-line therapies 349
RESPIRATORY SALES DRIVERS 351
RESPIRATORY SALES BREAKERS 353
FUTURE TREATMENTS 354
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 359
KEY DRUGS LAUNCHES BY 2010 360
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 361
KEY RESPIRATORY DRUG LAUNCHES BY 2010 362
Allermist (GlaxoSmithkline) 362
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 362
Proof of concept/clinical data 362
Management/clinical expertise 362
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 362
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 363
Filings and approval 363
Sales forecasts and assumptions 363
Competitor Ratio Analysis 364
alvesco (altana/sanofi-aventis) 364
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 364
Proof of concept/clinical data 364
Management/clinical expertise 365
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 365
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 366
Filings and approval 366
Sales forecasts and assumptions 367
Competitor Ratio Analysis 368
ariflo (gsk) 368
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 368
Proof of concept/clinical data 368
Management/clinical expertise 368
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 369
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 369
Filings and approval 369
Sales forecasts and assumptions 370
Competitor Ratio Analysis 370
asmanex (schering-Plough) 370
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 370
Proof of concept/clinical data 371
Management/clinical expertise 371
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 371
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 371
Filings and approval 371
Sales forecasts and assumptions 372
Competitor Ratio Analysis 372
Daxas (altana) 372
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 372
Proof of concept/clinical data 373
RATIO/M2-112 373
RECORD Study 374
PEGASUS1 Study 374
PRIME Study 374
ROMEO Study 374
Management/clinical expertise 374
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 375
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 375
Filings and approval 375
Sales forecasts and assumptions 376
Competitor Ratio Analysis 376
gsk 159797 (gsk/theravance) 377
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 377
Proof of concept/clinical data 377
Management/clinical expertise 377
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 377
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 378
Filings and approval 378
Sales forecasts and assumptions 378
Competitor Ratio Analysis 379
mepolizumab (glaxosmithkline) 379
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 379
Proof of concept/clinical data 379
Management/clinical expertise 380
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 380
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 380
Filings and approval 380
Sales forecasts and assumptions 380
Competitor Ratio Analysis 381
NVa237 (Novartis/Vactura/arakis) 381
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 381
Proof of concept/clinical data 381
Management/clinical expertise 381
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 381
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 382
Filings and approval 382
Sales forecasts and assumptions 382
Competitor Ratio Analysis 383
Qab149 (Novartis) 383
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 383
Proof of concept/clinical data 383
Management/clinical expertise 383
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 383
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 384
Filings and approval 385
Sales forecasts and assumptions 385
Competitor Ratio Analysis 385
symbicort (astraZeneca) 386
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 386
Proof of concept/clinical data 386
Single inhaler Therapy (SiT): 386
Variable dosing Symbicort more effective than fixed dosing Advair: 386
Adjustable dosing more cost effective than fixed dosing in asthma treatment386
Management/clinical expertise 387
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 387
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 388
Filings and approval 388
Sales forecasts and assumptions 388
Competitor Ratio Analysis 389
Xolair (Novartis) 389
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 389
Proof of concept/clinical data 389
Management/clinical expertise 390
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 390
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 390
Filings and approval 390
Sales forecasts and assumptions 390
Competitor Ratio Analysis 391
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 392
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – DRUGS 393
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 395
VacciNes 397
CURRENT MARKET SIZE 397
Vaccine Sales breakdown and forecasts 399
ADDRESSABLE PATIENT POPULATION 400
PAEDIATRIC VACCINES 401
rotaVirus 401
ADULT VACCINES 402
Zoster Virus 402
CERVICAL CANCER VACCINES 403
LUNG CANCER VACCINES 404
PROSTATE CANCER VACCINES 405
CURRENT TREATMENTS 406
VACCINE SALES DRIVERS 407
VACCINE SALES BREAKERS 408
FUTURE TREATMENTS 409
MARKET DYNAMICS - WINNERS & LOSERS 416
KEY VACCINE LAUNCHES BY 2010 417
KEY EVALUATION CRITERIA 418
KEY VACCINE LAUNCHES BY 2010 419
cervarix (glaxosmithkline/medimmune419
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 419
Proof of concept/clinical data 419
Management / clinical expertise 420
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 420
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 420
Filings & Approvals 420
Sales forecasts and assumptions 421
Competitor Ratio Analysis 421
gardasil (merck & co/sanofi pasteur) 421
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 421
Proof of concept/clinical data 421
Management / clinical expertise 422
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 422
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 422
Filings & Approvals 423
Sales forecasts and assumptions 423
Competitor Ratio Analysis 423
gVaX (cell genesys) 423
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 423
Proof of concept/clinical data 424
Management/clinical expertise 424
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 425
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 425
Filings and approval 425
Sales forecasts and assumptions 425
Competitor Ratio Analysis 426
l-blP25 (biomira/merck kgaa) 426
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 426
Proof of concept/clinical data 426
Management/clinical expertise 427
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of Voice 427
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 427
Filings & Approvals 427
Sales forecasts and assumptions 428
Competitor Ratio Analysis 428
Provenge (Dendreon) 429
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 429
Proof of concept/clinical data 429
Management/clinical expertise 430
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 430
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 430
Filings and approval 431
Sales forecasts and assumptions 431
Competitor Ratio Analysis 431
rotarix (glaxosmithkline/avantimmunotherapeutics) 432
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 432
Proof of concept/clinical data 432
Management and clinical expertise 432
Competition within the marketplace/ gaining share of voice 432
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 433
Filings & Approvals 433
Sales forecasts and assumptions 433
Competitor Ratio Analysis 434
rotateq (merck & co.) 434
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 434
Proof of concept/clinical data 434
Management and clinical expertise 434
Competition within the marketplace/ gaining share of voice 435
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 435
Filings & Approvals 435
Sales forecasts and assumptions 435
Competitor Ratio Analysis 436
streptorix (glaxosmithkline/medimmune) 436
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 436
Proof of concept/clinical data 436
Management/clinical expertise 437
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 437
Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class 437
Filings and approval 437
Sales forecasts and assumptions 438
Competitor Ratio Analysis 438
Zostavax (merck & co.) 439
Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action 439
Proof of concept/clinical data 439
Management / clinical expertise 439
Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice 439
Filings & Approvals 440
Sales forecasts and assumptions 440
Competitor Ratio Analysis 440
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY 441
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS – VACCINES 442
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 444
coNclusioNs 445
THE TOP TEN WINNERS 445
PHARMACEUTICAL WINNERS & LOSERS 446
PFiZer 447
glaXosmithkliNe 448
astraZeNeca 449
NoVartis 450
merck & co 451
bristol-myers sQuibb 452
JohNsoN & JohNsoN 453
comPaNies with betweeN 1 aND 5 key Drugs iN late stage cliNical DeVeloPmeNt 454
ALTANA 455
CELL GENESYS 456