On line Publications

CNS Drug Discoveries

What the future holds

By Dr CL Barton / Publication Date: 27th November 2006

Contents:

CNS Drug Discoveries - What The Future Holds.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

Figure 1. Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) .1
Competitor Ratio Analysis – Drugs .4
CNS Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 – Therapeutic Category .6
Competitor Ratio Analysis – Companies .6
CNS Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 –Major Pharma Companies.7
Pharmaceutical Companies and products analysis in this report .8
CNS Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 –Speciality Pharma & Biotech Companies .10
Biotechnology and Specialty Pharma Companies and products analysis in this report .11

About the Author.12

ATTENTION DEFICIT HYPERACTIVITY DISORDER .13

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .13
THE FACTS .13
What is ADHD and why are we interested in it? .13
Symptoms of ADHD subtype .14
Rates of Co-morbid Conditions among Children with ADHD .15
PATIENT STATISTICS . 15
Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future .15
PATIENT MODEL .16
The addressable ADHD market will have show 6.5% CAGR over the period 2005-2012. 16
Summary of patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E .16
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .17
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS . 18
GLOBAL ADHD MARKET .19
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) .19
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT .20
Global sales split (2005A) .20
US market .21
ADHD US drugs sales split (2005A) .21
European market . 22
ADHD European drugs sales split (2005A) .22
Japanese market .23
The major players .23
Market share of ADHD players by sales (Dec 2005A) .23
Players and Products in 2005 & 2006 .24
Players and Products in 2012 .24
Market share of ADHD players by sales (Dec 2012E) .
CURRENT TREATMENTS .26
Leading Brands .27
Comparison of leading ADHD drugs .28
Current Products Patent Exposure .29
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS .29
Stimulants .30
Non-Stimulant .30
STIMULANTS .31
Adderall and Adderall XR (Shire) .31
Concerta and Concerta XL (Johnson & Johnson) .35
Competitor Ratio Analysis .38
Daytrana (Shire) .39

Focalin/Focalin XR (Novartis) 42
Ritalin/Ritalin LA (Novartis) . 45
Metadate ER/Equasym and Metadate CD/Equasym XL (UCB) 47
NON STIMULANT 50
Strattera (Eli Lilly) . 50
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 – 2012 .54
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading ADHD Drugs .55
Model assumptions . 56
NEW DRUGS IN R&D .57
Drugs in Development to Treat ADHD ..57
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS 58
New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat ADHD ..58
Non-Stimulant 58
Stimulant .. 58
Connexyn (Shire) .. 59
p-value of ADHD-RS Efficacy of SPD503 versus placebo in Phase III trials .59
Changing in ADHD Rating Score Connexyn (Study 301) and Strattera (Study 3468) .59
NRP104 (Shire) .. 62
SPD465 (Shire) 65
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III ADHD DRUGS 2006 – 2012 .68
Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental ADHD Drugs .68
Model assumptions . 68
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS .69
New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat ADHD .69
NS2359 (GSK, NeuroSearch) .70
CX717 (Cortex Pharmaceuticals) . 73
PRX-00023 .75
SGS742 .75
Abilify .76
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II ADHD DRUGS 2006 – 2012 .76
Sales Forecasts of Phase 2 Developmental ADHD Drugs ..76
Model assumptions ..76
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS 77
CR Analysis of ADHD Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class .78
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES .79
CR Analysis of ADHD Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Company .79
WINNERS & LOSERS . 80
Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the ADHD Market by 2012 .80
Winners . 80
Losers .82
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS ..83
ADHD drugs discontinued from clinical development 83
ADHD APPENDIX 1 .84
Assessment of ADHD Criteria . 84
ADHD APPENDIX 2 .85
Phase transition probability 85
Probability of launch ..85
ADHD APPENDIX 3. 86
Patient Model 86
Summary of US ADHD Patient Population Forecasts .86
Summary of Europe (Top 5) ADHD Patient Population Forecasts 86

Summary of Japan ADHD Patient Population Forecasts 87
ADHD APPENDIX 4 .88
Global ADHD Drugs Sales 2005-20012 .. 88
Global ADHD Drug Sales 2005A-2012E (US$ million) .88
ADHD APPENDIX 5 .90
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria . 90
Key ADHD Drugs on the Market by 2012 .90
ADHD GLOSSARY 91
ADHD REFERENCES 94
ACRONYMS 95

DEPRESSION 97

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 97
THE FACTS 98
What is depression and why are we interested in it? . 98
PATIENT STATISTICS 98
Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future . 98
PATIENT MODEL .99
Summary of patient population forecasts in seven major markets (2005A-2012E) .99
Model assumptions . 100
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .101
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS .102
GLOBAL ANTIDEPRESSANT MARKET 103
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) 03
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT .104
Global sales by region (2005A).104
US market 106
Antidepressant US drugs sales by (2005A106
European market 107
European Antidepressant sales by (2005A) .107
ROW/Japanese market . 108
The Major Players Products in 2005 & 2006 . 108
Market share of Antidepressant players by sales (Dec 2005A) .108
The Major Players and Products in 2012 . 109
Market share of Antidepressant Players by sales (Dec 2012E) 110
CURRENT TREATMENTS 111
Leading Brands .112
Comparison of leading antidepressant drugs 112
Patent Exposure of Current Products .113
Patent Exposure of Leading Antidepressant Brands .113
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS . 114
Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs) .115
Lexapro/Cipralex (Forest/Lundbeck) 115
Prozac (Eli Lilly) ..119
Zoloft (Pfizer) 126
Serotonin and Noradrenaline Reuptake Inhibitors (SNRIs) 129
Cymbalta (Eli Lilly) . 129
Effexor (Wyeth) 133
Noradrenaline and Dopamine Reuptake Inhibitors (NDRIs) 137
Wellbutrin (GlaxoSmithKline) .. 137
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 – 2012 .140
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Antidepressant Drugs .140

Model assumptions .141
NEW DRUGS IN R&D . 141
Drugs in Development to Treat Depression and Anxiety Related Disorders.142
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS .145
New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Depression and Anxiety .145
Phase III drugs .145
Other Phase III drugs of interest .145

INSOMNIA 189

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .189
THE FACTS 189
What is insomnia and why are we interested in it? .189
PATIENT 190
Summary of insomnia patient population in top 5 European countries .192
PATIENT MODEL .192
The addressable insomnia market will have a CAGR 2005-2012 = 5.9% .192
Patient population and sub-types of insomnia .192
Summary of patient population (for top seven countries) forecasts .193
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .194
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPNERS .194
GLOBAL INSOMNIA MARKET 196
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) 196
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT .197
US market 198
Insomnia US drugs sales split (2005A) 198
European market . 198
Insomnia European drugs sales split (2005A) .199
Japanese market . 200
Insomnia Japanese drugs sales split (2005A) .200
The major players .. 201
Market share of insomnia players by sales (Dec 2005A) .201
Players and Products in 2005 202
Players and Products in 2012 . 202
Market share of insomnia players by sales (Dec 2012E) 203
CURRENT TREATMENTS ..204
Leading Brands . 204
Comparison of Leading Brands .205
Current Products Patent Exposure . 206
Patent exposure of leading brands .206
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS ..206
GABA-A Receptor Agonists . 206
Melatonin Receptor Agonist . 206
GABA-A Receptor Agonists .207
Ambien/Stilnox/Myslee and Ambien CR (sanofi-aventis) . 207
Lunesta (Sepracor) ..211
Sonata (King Pharmaceuticals) 214
Melatonin Receptor Agonist 216
Rozerem (Takeda) ..216
Distribution of ML-1 and ML-2 receptors ...216
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 – 2012 ..219
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Insomnia Drugs (US$ million) .219
Model assumptions ..219

NEW DRUGS IN R&D .220
Drugs in Development to Treat Insomnia .221
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS .222
Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Insomnia .222
GABA-A Receptor Agonists .222
Histamine Receptor Antagonist 222
5-HT2A Receptor Antagonist . 222
Melatonin Receptor Agonist . 222
indiplon (Neurocrine Biosciences) . 222
gaboxadol (Lundbeck) 226
Silenor (Somaxon) . 229
Eplivanserin (sanofi-aventis) .232
Effect of eplivanserin on sleep parameters in Phase IIb trial .232
VEC-162 (Vanda Pharmaceuticals) 235
Efficacy of VEC-162 in transient insomnia trials .235
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III INSOMNIA DRUGS 2006 – 2012 .238
Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental Insomnia Drugs 238
Model assumptions .. 238
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS 239
New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat Insomnia .239
5-HT2A Receptor Antagonists . 240
GABA-A Receptor Modulator 240
Melatonin Analogue . 240
5-HT2A RECEPTOR ANTAGONISTS 241
M100907 (sanofi-aventis) 241
Pruvanserin (Eli Lilly) . 243
GABA-A MODULATORS .245
NG2-73 (Neurogen) 245
MELATONIN ANALOGUE 248
PD-6735 (Phase II Discovery) . 248
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II INSOMNIA DRUGS 2006 – 2012 .250
Sales Forecasts of Insomnia Drugs in Phase III .250
Model assumptions250
CR Analysis of Insomnia Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class 252
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 252
CR Analysis of Insomnia Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Company .253
WINNERS & LOSERS 253
Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the Insomnia Market by 2012.254
Winners 254
Losers 256
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS .257
INSOMNIA APPENDIX 1 .258
Analysis of clinical trial data . 258
INSOMNIA APPENDIX 2 .259
Phase transition probability . 259
Probability of launch 259
INSOMNIA APPENDIX 3 .260
Patient Model . 260
Summary of US Insomnia Patient Population Forecasts 260
Summary of Europe (Top 5) Insomnia Patient Population Forecasts .261
Summary of Japan Insomnia Patient Population Forecasts 262


INSOMNIA APPENDIX 4 .263
Global Drug Sales 2005-2012 (US$ million) . 263
INSOMNIA APPENDIX 5 .264
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria .264
Key insomnia drugs due to be launched by 2012 264
INSOMNIA GLOSSARY 265
INSOMNIA REFERENCES .267
Acronyms .269

MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS 271

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .271
THE FACTS 272
What is MS and why are we interested in it? . 272
PATIENT STATISTICS .273
Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future 273
MS categories 274
Types of MS 274
PATIENT MODEL 275
The treatable MS patient population will have a CAGR 2005-2012 = 4.6% ..275
Summary of patient population forecasts 275
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .276
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS .277
GLOBAL MS MARKET . 278
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) 278
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT 279
Global sales split (2005A) 279
US market 279
MS US drugs sales split (2005A) .280
European market281
MS European drugs sales split (2005A) .281
Japanese market .281
The major players . 282
Market share of MS players by sales (Dec 2005A) .282
Players and Products in 2005 & 2006 .282
Players and products in 2012 283
CURRENT TREATMENTS 285
Leading Brands 286
Comparison of Leading MS Agents.287
Current Products Patent Exposure . 288
Patent Exposure of Leading Brands .288
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS 289
Disease-modifying agents . 289
Disease-modifying agents .290
Avonex (Biogen Idec/Genzyme) . 290
Betaferon/Betaseron (Berlex/Schering AG) 294
Copaxone (Teva) 298
Rebif (Serono) . 302
Tysabri 306
Novantrone (Serono) .311
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005–2012 .314
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading MS Drugs .314
Model assumptions .315

NEW DRUGS IN R&D 315
Drugs in Development to Treat MS .316
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS .317
New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat MS 317
Disease-modifying agents .318
MS Symptoms 318
Campath (Genzyme/Schering AG) .319
FTY720 (Novartis) . 322
Laquinimod (Teva/Active Biotech) .325
MBP8298 (BioMS) . 328
Mylinax (Serono/Ivax) 331
Rituxan (Genentech/Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaju Kogyo) 334
Teriflunomide (sanofi-aventis) . 337
MS Symptoms .340
Neurelan (Elan/Acorda) 340
Trial MS-F202: Timed 25-foot walk response rate of MS patients treated with Fampridine SR ..341
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III MS DRUGS 2006–2012344
Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental MS Drugs .344
Model assumptions . 344
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS 345
New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat MS 345
Disease-modifying agents . 346
Vaccines 346
Disease-modifying 347
ABT-874 (Abbott) . 347
ATL1102 (Antisense/ISIS pharmaceuticals).350
BG-12 (Biogen 353
Daclizumab (Biogen Idec/BioPharma) . 356
SB-683699 (GlaxoSmithKline/Tanabe Seiyaku) .359
Vaccines 363
NeuroVax (TIRC) 363
Tovaxin (Opexa Therapeutics) . 365
Other Interesting Phase II Drugs .. 368
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II MS DRUGS 2006 – 2012 370
Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental MS Drugs .370
Model assumptions .370
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS 371
CR Analysis of MS Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class .372
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES .373
CR Analysis of MS Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Company 374
WINNERS & LOSERS .374
Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the MS Market by 2012 .375
Winners .375
Losers . 377
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS .378
MS Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development .
MS APPENDIX 1 379
Clinical diagnostic test for MS 379
MS APPENDIX 2 381
Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) . 381

MS APPENDIX 3 383
Phase transition probability 383
Probability of launch 383
MS APPENDIX 4 384
Patient Model . 384
Summary of US MS Patient Population Forecasts.384
Summary of Europe (Tope 5) MS Patient Population Forecasts .384
Summary of Japan MS Patient Population Forecasts ..385
MS APPENDIX 5 .386
Global MS Drugs Sales 2005-20012.386
Global MS Drug Sales 2005A-2012E 386
Ms APPENDIX 6 .387
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria . 387
Key MS Drugs on the Market by 2012 ..387
MS GLOSSARY 388
MS REFERENCES 393
ACRONYMNS .394

NEURODEGENERATION .395

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .395
THE FACTS 396
What is neurodegeneration and why are we interested in it? . 396
PATIENT STATISTICS .396
Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future . 396
PATIENT MODEL .397
The addressable AD and PD patient population will grow by 2% per annum . 397
Summary of AD patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E 398
Summary of PD patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E .398
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .399
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS 400
GLOBAL AD/PD MARKET . 401
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) 401
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT 402
AD and PD Global sales split (2005A) .402
AD Global sales split (2005A) ..403
PD Global sales split (2005A) 404
US market .405
AD US drugs sales split (2005A) .405
PD US drugs sales split (2005A) 406
European market 407
AD European drugs sales split (2005A) 407
PD European drugs sales split (2005A) .408
Japan ..409
Split between AD and PD in Japan (2005A) .409
The major players .410
Market Share of AD players by sales (Dec 2005A) .410
Market Share of PD players by sales (Dec 2005A) 411
Players and Products in 2012 .411
Market Share of AD players by sales (Dec 2012E) .412
Players and Products in 2012 413
Market Share of PD players by sales (Dec 2012E) 413
CURRENT AD TREATMENTS .. 414

CURRENT PD TREATMENTS . 415
Leading Brands .416
Comparison of leading AD drugs 416
Comparison of leading PD drug classes 418
Patent Exposure of Current Products 419
Patent Exposure of Leading AD Brands .419
Patent Exposure of Leading PD Brands 419
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS 420
AD Agents 420
PD Agents 420
Acetylcholine Esterase (AChE) Inhibitors 421
Aricept (Eisai) .421
Exelon (Novartis) . 425
Razadyne (Johnson & Johnson/Shire) . 428
NMDA Antagonist 432
Namenda/Ebixa (Forest/Lundbeck) 432
Dopamine Agonists 436
Apokyn (Britannia/Vernalis) .436
Neupro (Schwarz Pharma) . 439
Sifrol/Mirapex/Mirapexin (Boehringer Ingelheim) 444
Requip (GlaxoSmithKline) 447
Monoaminoxidase (MAO) Inhibitors .450
Azilect (Lundbeck/Teva) 450
Catechol-O-Methyltransferase (COMT) Inhibitors 453
Comtan/Comtess & Stalevo (Novartis) 453
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 – 2012 456
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading AD Drugs 456
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading PD Drugs 2005 - 2012 .457
Model assumptions . 458
NEW DRUGS IN R&D .458
Drugs in Development to Treat AD and PD .458
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS .461
New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat AD and PD ..461
AD Agents . 462
PD Agents . 462
AD Agents ..463
Alzhemed (Neurochem) . 463
Flurizan (Myriad Genetics) 466
Phenserine (Axonyx) 469
Xaliproden (sanofi-aventis) . 472
Parkinson’s Disease .473
E2007 (Eisai) 473
Istradefylline (Kyowa Hakko) 477
Safinamide (Newron) .480
SLV308 (Solvay) 483
Spheramine (Schering AG/Titan) . 487
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III AD and PD DRUGS 2006 – 2012 .490
Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental AD and PD Drugs 490
Model assumptions 490
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS .491

AD Agents 492
PD Agents 492
AD agents 493
Bapineuzumab (Wyeth/Elan) 493
Other promising Phase II drugs 494
CX717 (Cortex Pharmaceuticals) .494
EVT 101 (Evotec) 494
Ketasyn (Accera) . 495
MEM 1003 (Memory Pharmaceuticals) 495
PBT2 496
SGS-742 (Saegis Pharmaceuticals) 496
PD drugs 497
SR 57667 (sanofi-aventis) . 497
Talampanel 497
VR040 497
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS PRODUCTS/DRUGS 498
CR Analysis of AD Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class 499
CR Analysis of PD Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class .500
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 501
CR Analysis of AD and PD Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Company 501
WINNERS & LOSERS 502
Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the AD and PD Market by 2012 .502
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS .503
AD and PD drugs discontinued from clinical development .503
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 1 504
Phase transition probability 504
Probability of launch .504
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 2 .505
AD Patient Model 505
Summary of AD Patient Population Forecasts .505
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 3 506
PD Patient Model .06
Summary of PD Patient Population Forecasts .506
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 4 07
Global AD Drugs Sales 2005-2012 507
Global AD Drug Sales 2005A-2012E 507
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 5 08
Global PD Drugs Sales 2005-2012 . 508
Global PD Drug Sales 2005A-2012E 508
NEURODEGENERATIVE APPENDIX 510
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria .510
Key AD & PD Drugs on the Market by 2012 510
NEURODEGENERATIVE GLOSSARY. 511
NEURODEGENERATIVE REFERENCES 518
ACRONYMS 521

SCHIZOPHRENIA 523

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .523
THE FACTS .524
What is schizophrenia and why are we interested in it? 524
Symptoms associated with schizophrenia 524
Schematic depicting mood swings in bipolar disorder .524

PATIENT STATISTICS .525
Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future .525
PATIENT MODEL 526
Summary of patient population forecasts 2005A-2012E ..526
DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS .527
DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS .528
GLOBAL SCHIZOPHRENIA MARKET .529
Global CNS Market (US$68.7 billion) 529
GLOBAL SALES SPLIT .530
Global sales split (2005A) 530
Prescription usage split (2005A) 531
The major players 531
Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2005A) .531
Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2006E) 532
Players and Products in 2005 & 2006 532
Players and Products in 2012 . 533
Market share of antipsychotic players by sales (Dec 2012E) 534
CURRENT TREATMENTS 534
Leading Brands .535
Comparison of leading antipsychotic drugs .536
Current Products Patent Exposure . 537
Patent Exposure of Leading Antipsychotic Brands .537
ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS 538
Atypical antipsychotics . 538
Other Agents . 538
ATYPICAL ANTIPSYCHOTICS 539
Abilify (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Otsuka). 539
Geodon/Zeldox (Pfizer) . 542
Risperdal (Johnson & Johnson) 545
Seroquel (AstraZeneca). 548
Zyprexa (Eli Lilly) 552
Other atypical antipsychotics: 556
Serdolect (Lundbeck) 556
Lullan 556
Clozaril/Leponex (Novartis) 556
Solian (sanofi-aventis) 557
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005 – 2012 .558
Sales Forecasts of Current Leading Antipsychotics 558
Model assumptions 558
NEW DRUGS IN 559
Drugs in Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder 560
ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS .562
Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder 562
D/5-HT receptor antagonists .562
D/5-HT receptor antagonists .563
Asenapine (Pfizer/Organon) . 563
Bifeprunox (Wyeth/Solvay/Lundbeck) .565
Blonanserin (Dainippon Sumitomo) . 568
Clinical Efficacy of Blonanserin.568
Iloperidone (Vanda Pharmaceutical) 571
Safety Profile of Iloperidone vs. Approved Antipsychotics .572
Paliperidone (Johnson & Johnson) 574
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III SCHIZOPHRENIA DRUGS 2006 – 2012.577
Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs .577
Model assumptions 577
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS 578
New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat Schizophrenia/Bipolar Disorder 578
Lurasidone (Dainippon Sumitomo/Merck & Co.) . 581
Ocaperidone (Neuro3d) 583
SGS518 (Eli Lilly/Saegis Pharmaceuticals) . 585
Talnetant (GlaxoSmithKline) . 587
Talnetant Efficacy and Safety Profile 587
Talnetant Cognitive Effects 588
ABT-089 (Abbott) . 590
ORG 24448 (Akzo Nobel/Cortex Pharmaceuticals). 590
Vabicaserin (Wyeth) 590
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II ANTIPSYCHOTIC DRUGS 2005-2012 .591
Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental Antipsychotic Drugs 591
Model assumptions . 591
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS 592
CR Analysis of Antipsychotic Agents Approved by 2012 – Based on Drug Class 593
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES 594
CR Analysis of Antipsychotics Approved by 2012 – Based on Company .594
WINNERS & LOSERS .595
Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the Antipsychotic Market by 2012 .595
Winners 596
Losers . 598
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS 599
Antipsychotic Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development .599
SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 1 600
Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in schizophrenia 600
Assessment of antipsychotic efficacy in bipolar disorder 600
SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 2 601
Phase transition probability 601
Probability of launch .601
SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 3 .602
Patient Model 602
Summary of US Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts .602
Summary of European (Top 5) Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts .603
Summary of Japanese Schizophrenia Patient Population Forecasts 603
SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 4 .604
Global Antipsychotic Drug Sales 2005A-2012E .604
SCHIZOPHRENIA APPENDIX 5 ..605
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria 605
Key Antipsychotic Drugs on the Market by 2012 .605
SCHIZOPHRENIA GLOSSARY .606
SCHIZOPHRENIA REFERENCES 610
ACRONYMS .611